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Signal report

Why This Forecast Works

Evidence researched through 2026-09-22. Unknown fields are intentionally not guessed.

  • Historical appearances: 2022.
  • Research-only library record. It is intentionally excluded from scoring and the public Top 100 until current evidence is reviewed.
  • Evidence researched through 2026-09-22. Unknown fields are intentionally not guessed.
  • Batch 05 research cutoff: 2026-09-22.
  • Atlanta timing: NONE_FOUND
  • Current release/touring/festival research completed. Positive conditions are source-backed; absence statements mean no qualifying current/2027 evidence was verified in this pass.
  • Current-activity batch 01 research gaps now: Verify image credit/rights metadata; Verify management; Verify record label.
  • Research Batch 06 (PARTIAL): New label signing and new-era/new-record activity are mapped to existing recording and tour fields; no unsupported album title or date was created.
  • Research Batch 06 remaining fields: image_credit.

Forecast factors

Pressure Breakdown

This is the weighted case behind the ranking. It explains where the Forecast Index comes from without pretending the number is a literal probability.

  • Agency relationship+4

    CAA has a meaningful recent Shaky/C3 footprint.

  • Active Cycle+1

    Correlated activity evidence is bundled with diminishing returns: release (1).

  • Shaky genre fit+2

    Strong Shaky-compatible alternative/rock/indie fit.

  • Returner sweet spot+3

    CHVRCHES last played in 2022, which sits in the ideal return window.

Forecast Index: 10

Routing map

Festival Fronts

  • No festival fronts are currently on the desk.

Release climate

Music Weather

Album

No title tracked

Status

Album in Development

Release

Not announced

2027 Touring

No confirmed 2027 North American tour is currently on the desk

Lauren Mayberry described the band as making a record; Roses opens that new era.

Forecast Impact

+1 release-climate points

CHVRCHES carry verified new-music momentum, which helps explain why the forecast keeps them active in the 2027 booking conversation.

CHVRCHES — Research Batch 06 release
  • North American Tour (2026)Confirmed

    Current listings include a November 20, 2026 Mexico City performance. Live Nation otherwise shows no broader upcoming tour.

  • World Tour (2026)Confirmed

    Confirmed intimate October 2026 return shows in Glasgow and London.

Historical conditions

Shaky History

Past appearances2022

Receipts

Sources

These are the receipts behind this ranking. Each source is tagged by what it contributes to the case.