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Dawes promotional portrait composite by Ward & Kweskin.

Current conditions

#2 Dawes

Wildcard • 16°TEMPERATURE

Dawes grade out well because of active cycle, agency relationship, shaky genre fit. There are no major penalty conditions dragging the profile down at the moment.

Listen on YouTube Music

Genre Fit

3/3

Agency

WME

Last Shaky

2014

Festival Fronts

0

Booking outlook

Historical Shaky Knees performer awaiting current artist, touring, and genre-fit research.

Artist Bio

Dawes are a Los Angeles rock band led by Taylor Goldsmith, known for reflective songwriting, harmony-rich arrangements and a sound rooted in classic California rock. They first played Shaky in 2014, producing a thirteen-year gap by 2027. Their official site already confirms a January 15–18, 2027 appearance at 30A Songwriters Festival in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida. That combination of long historical distance and a current Southeast Festival Front makes Dawes one of the most compelling Batch 11 candidates.

Credit: Ward & Kweskin

Signal report

Why This Forecast Works

Researched through 2026-09-22. Unknown or unverified fields are intentionally not guessed.

  • Historical appearances: 2014.
  • Research-only library record. It is intentionally excluded from scoring and the public Top 100 until current evidence is reviewed.
  • Researched through 2026-09-22. Unknown or unverified fields are intentionally not guessed.
  • Batch 11 research cutoff: 2026-09-22.
  • Atlanta timing: NONE_FOUND
  • Research Batch 04 (COMPLETE): Booking, management, label, 2026 material, and confirmed 2027 routing resolved; the existing valid image credit is retained.
  • Research Batch 04: listed research gaps resolved.

Forecast factors

Pressure Breakdown

This is the weighted case behind the ranking. It explains where the Forecast Index comes from without pretending the number is a literal probability.

  • Agency relationship+3

    WME has a meaningful recent Shaky/C3 footprint.

  • Active Cycle+5

    Correlated activity evidence is bundled with diminishing returns: release (4), festival (2).

  • Shaky genre fit+3

    Historical Shaky Knees performer awaiting current artist, touring, and genre-fit research.

  • Returner sweet spot+3

    Dawes last played in 2014, which sits in the ideal return window.

  • Southeast tour window+2

    The touring footprint lines up with the likely Shaky season.

Forecast Index: 16

Routing map

Festival Fronts

  • No festival fronts are currently on the desk.

Release climate

Music Weather

Album

No title tracked

Status

Unknown

Release

Not announced

2027 Touring

No confirmed 2027 North American tour is currently on the desk

Forecast Impact

+0 release-climate points

This profile does not currently receive any verified release-climate points.

  • Southeast Window (2027)Confirmed

    Confirmed 30A Songwriters Festival, Santa Rosa Beach, FL, Jan. 15-18, 2027.

Historical conditions

Shaky History

Past appearances2014

Receipts

Sources

These are the receipts behind this ranking. Each source is tagged by what it contributes to the case.