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Signal report

Why This Forecast Works

Official site verifies Little Wide Open, current booking contacts, late-2026 touring, and two explicit 2027 destination/festival appearances.

  • Historical appearances: 2024.
  • Research-only library record. It is intentionally excluded from scoring and the public Top 100 until current evidence is reviewed.
  • Status corrected to active from Kevin Morby's official Little Wide Open site, which lists current tour dates and 2026 management, label, and booking contacts.
  • Official site verifies Little Wide Open, current booking contacts, late-2026 touring, and two explicit 2027 destination/festival appearances.
  • Current-activity refresh batch 02 reviewed: 2026-09-27.
  • Atlanta timing: NONE_FOUND. This is retained as research context; no Atlanta-conflict condition is inferred from a 2026 date.
  • Research Batch 10 (PARTIAL): Management and label resolved directly from the artist site; current 2026 album activity strengthened.
  • Research Batch 10 remaining fields: image_credit.

Forecast factors

Pressure Breakdown

This is the weighted case behind the ranking. It explains where the Forecast Index comes from without pretending the number is a literal probability.

  • Agency relationship+4

    CAA has a meaningful recent Shaky/C3 footprint.

  • Active Cycle+5

    Correlated activity evidence is bundled with diminishing returns: release (3), touring (2), festival (1).

  • Shaky genre fit+3

    Indie rock, folk rock, and literate singer-songwriter material are firmly within Shaky Knees' established programming.

  • Recent Shaky penalty (2024)-3

    A recent appearance makes an immediate repeat materially less likely.

Forecast Index: 9

Routing map

Festival Fronts

  • No festival fronts are currently on the desk.

Release climate

Music Weather

Album

Little Wide Open

Status

2026 Album

Release

May 15, 2026

2027 Touring

Confirmed North American touring in 2027

Eighth album Little Wide Open was released May 15, 2026 via Dead Oceans, followed by additional 2026 singles and touring.

Forecast Impact

+1 release-climate points

Kevin Morby carry verified new-music momentum, which helps explain why the forecast keeps them active in the 2027 booking conversation.

Kevin Morby — Research Batch 10 release
  • North American Tour (2027)Confirmed

    January 14-18, 2027 — My Morning Jacket's One Big Holiday, Riviera Maya; April 1-4, 2027 — Big Ears Festival, Knoxville

Historical conditions

Shaky History

Past appearances2024

Receipts

Sources

These are the receipts behind this ranking. Each source is tagged by what it contributes to the case.