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Members of Pavement perform together.

Current conditions

#116 Pavement

Mid Card • 9°TEMPERATURE

Pavement grade out well because of shaky knees 2026 early-cycle condition, shaky genre fit, fresh booking opportunity. There are no major penalty conditions dragging the profile down at the moment.

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Genre Fit

3/3

Agency

Billions (worldwide excluding Australia/New Zealand); Billions Australia (Australia/New Zealand)

Last Shaky

Never

Festival Fronts

0

Booking outlook

The project’s modern alternative, rock, punk, and adjacent festival-fit criteria support a defensible SHAKY//27 evaluation.

Artist Bio

Pavement are associated with Stockton, California and formed in 1989 around Stephen Malkmus and Scott Kannberg. Their music is known for loose, literate indie rock that became hugely influential on the 1990s alternative underground. Slanted and Enchanted, Crooked Rain, Crooked Rain, and Wowee Zowee became cult landmarks; the band reunited for major tours after its original 1999 breakup. Across their career, the project has built its reputation through a combination of recorded work and live performance, making them a recognizable presence in the alternative, rock, or festival world relevant to this forecast.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Signal report

Why This Forecast Works

A legacy-indie fit with direct current Shaky booking evidence that was never converted into a completed 2026 appearance.

  • 2026 — BOOKED / WEATHER CANCELLATION / DID NOT PERFORM. The booking remains direct C3 interest, without the 2026 recency penalty.
  • Research Batch 06 (COMPLETE): Territorial booking, verified no-current-manager state, and label are resolved. The supplied MEDIUM catalog-cycle label has no canonical campaign enum, so it remains sourced context rather than a fabricated index input.
  • Research Batch 06: listed research gaps resolved.

Forecast factors

Pressure Breakdown

This is the weighted case behind the ranking. It explains where the Forecast Index comes from without pretending the number is a literal probability.

  • Shaky Knees 2026 early-cycle signal+4

    Booked for Shaky Knees 2026 but did not perform after the severe-weather evacuation; not treated as a completed appearance.

  • Shaky genre fit+3

    The project’s modern alternative, rock, punk, and adjacent festival-fit criteria support a defensible SHAKY FORECAST 27 evaluation.

  • Fresh booking opportunity+2

    Never playing Shaky keeps the booking fresh without losing genre fit.

Forecast Index: 9

Routing map

Festival Fronts

  • No festival fronts are currently on the desk.

Release climate

Music Weather

Album

No title tracked

Status

No Active Album Cycle

Release

Not announced

2027 Touring

No confirmed 2027 North American tour is currently on the desk

September 21 review found no confirmed or expected 2027 studio-release climate to index.

Forecast Impact

+0 release-climate points

This profile does not currently receive any verified release-climate points.

  • No tour conditions are currently on the desk.

Historical conditions

Shaky History

Never playedShaky Knees

Receipts

Sources

These are the receipts behind this ranking. Each source is tagged by what it contributes to the case.