← Back to Top 100 Artists—
The War on Drugs gathered together outdoors in a band portrait.

Current conditions

#63 The War on Drugs

Headliner • 11°TEMPERATURE

The War on Drugs grade out well because of active cycle, shaky genre fit, returner sweet spot. There are no major penalty conditions dragging the profile down at the moment.

Listen on YouTube Music

Genre Fit

3/3

Agency

WME (US/Canada and additional territories); Free Trade Agency (UK/Europe)

Last Shaky

2018

Festival Fronts

0

Booking outlook

Heartland indie-rock at a scale Shaky audiences have consistently shown up for.

Artist Bio

The War on Drugs are associated with Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and formed in 2005 by Adam Granduciel and Kurt Vile. Their music is known for expansive rock combining heartland songwriting, psychedelia, ambient production, and motorik rhythm. Lost in the Dream became a breakthrough, A Deeper Understanding won a Grammy, and I Don’t Live Here Anymore further established the band as a large-scale touring act. Across their career, the project has built its reputation through a combination of recorded work and live performance, making them a recognizable presence in the alternative, rock, or festival world relevant to this forecast.

Signal report

Why This Forecast Works

A strong long-gap returner with almost perfect audience overlap.

  • Ideal return window
  • Sept. 9, 2026 watch condition: released new studio recording ‘Who’s That,’ their first new studio material in years. Possible early album-cycle condition, but no new album has been announced.
  • Research Batch 11 (PARTIAL): Representation and label gaps resolved; first-new-studio-recording-since-2022 condition added.
  • Research Batch 11 remaining fields: image_credit.

Forecast factors

Pressure Breakdown

This is the weighted case behind the ranking. It explains where the Forecast Index comes from without pretending the number is a literal probability.

  • Active Cycle+5

    Correlated activity evidence is bundled with diminishing returns: release (4), festival (1).

  • Shaky genre fit+3

    Heartland indie-rock at a scale Shaky audiences have consistently shown up for.

  • Returner sweet spot+3

    The War on Drugs last played in 2018, which sits in the ideal return window.

Forecast Index: 11

Routing map

Festival Fronts

  • No festival fronts are currently on the desk.

Release climate

Music Weather

Album

No title tracked

Status

Unknown

Release

Not announced

2027 Touring

No confirmed 2027 North American tour is currently on the desk

Forecast Impact

+0 release-climate points

This profile does not currently receive any verified release-climate points.

  • No tour conditions are currently on the desk.

Historical conditions

Shaky History

Past appearances2018

Receipts

Sources

These are the receipts behind this ranking. Each source is tagged by what it contributes to the case.